“There is that near you, which will guide you; oh! wait for it, and be sure to keep to it…”
~ Isaac Penington, 1616–1679

Smaller classes
drive bigger futures

Every child deserves individual attention. Research consistently shows that reducing class sizes leads to better outcomes — especially for the students who need it most.

11,600
Students in the landmark STAR trial
13–17
Optimal class size (students)
1,767
Estimates across 62 studies reviewed
Summary

What the research tells us

Research consistently shows that smaller class sizes in early elementary grades (K–3) improve academic achievement, particularly for low-income and minority students.

K–3
15–18
Ideal students per class
Grades 4–5
18–22
Ideal students per class
Upper limit
~24
Before diminishing returns

Why class size matters

  • Increased individual attention
  • Improved classroom management
  • Stronger teacher–student relationships
  • More differentiated instruction
  • Increased student engagement

Early grades show the strongest cognitive and social-emotional returns.

Strongest evidence supports

  • 15–18 students per class in K–3
  • Modest benefits in grades 4–5
  • Long-term gains including graduation and earnings

Effects are strongest when

  • Reduction is substantial (7–10 fewer students)
  • Implemented in early grades
  • Sustained over multiple years

What recent research says

IES / What Works Clearinghouse 2018–2023

Small classes (≤18 students) in K–3 produce statistically significant improvements in reading and math. Effects are strongest for disadvantaged students. Effect size: +0.15 to +0.25 SD (moderate impact).

Stanford CEPA 2017–2020

Students in small K–3 classes show higher long-term earnings, higher college attendance rates, and stronger non-cognitive skill development.

RAND Corporation 2019

Class size reduction is effective but expensive. Most cost-effective when targeted to high-poverty schools.

Brookings Institution 2018

Modest reductions (25 → 22 students) show little impact. Large reductions (25 → 15 students) show meaningful gains.

OECD Education at a Glance 2022

Average OECD elementary class size: 21 students. U.S. average: ~21–23 students. Countries with smaller early-grade classes often show higher early literacy outcomes.

Brookings (Whitehurst & Chingos) 2011

Very large reductions (7–10 fewer students) can produce significant long-term effects, but policymakers must weigh CSR against alternatives. Teacher quality differences can be larger than class-size effects; implementation quality is decisive.

Impact on student outcomes

OutcomeImpact of Small Class (K–3)
Reading AchievementModerate positive
Math AchievementModerate positive
Graduation RatesIncreased
College AttendanceIncreased
Behavioral OutcomesImproved
Teacher RetentionImproved
Earnings (Adult)Increased

“Students assigned to smaller classes are more likely to attend college and earn higher wages.”

— Dr. Raj Chetty, Harvard University

“Reducing class size in the early grades has a positive effect on reading and mathematics achievement.”

— Institute of Education Sciences

“Smaller classes are often perceived as allowing teachers to focus more on the needs of individual students and to reduce time spent on disruptions.”

— OECD Education GPS
Academic Research

What the studies show

From randomized experiments to international quasi-experiments, the academic evidence on class size spans decades and continents. Here are the key studies.

Study #1

Project STAR — Tennessee Class Size Experiment

11,571
Students randomly assigned
13–17
Small class size
22–25
Regular class size
0.34
Peak reading effect (SD)

Key Findings

  • Students in smaller classes substantially outperformed peers on standardized and curriculum-based tests
  • Krueger’s (1999) econometric reanalysis: overall effect sizes of 0.20 SD (K), 0.28 SD (1st), 0.22 SD (2nd), 0.19 SD (3rd)
  • Minority reading effect sizes (0.25–0.52 SD) were roughly double those for white students (0.18–0.25 SD)
  • Black–white achievement gap reduced by 56% for students who began in small classes
  • Long-run: small-class students took ACT/SAT at 43.7% vs 40.0%; for Black students, 31.7% → 40.2% (Krueger & Whitmore, 2001)
  • Adult outcomes: significantly more likely to attend college; earnings effect positive but imprecise at age 27 (Chetty et al., 2011)

Summary

The gold-standard RCT (1985–89) randomly assigned 11,571 K–3 students across 79 Tennessee schools to small (13–17) or regular (22–25) classes. Krueger’s (1999) econometric reanalysis confirmed overall effect sizes of 0.19–0.28 SD across grades. Long-term follow-up (Krueger & Whitmore, 2001) showed small-class students were significantly more likely to take ACT/SAT (43.7% vs 40.0%), with adjusted score gains of ~0.13 SD overall and 0.20–0.26 SD for Black students. Chetty et al. (2011) linked STAR participants to adult records, finding significantly higher college attendance; earnings effects at age 27 were positive but imprecise. This “test-score fadeout with meaningful adult outcomes” pattern underscores that short-term test gains alone understate the full value of early class-size reductions.

Study #2

SAGE Program — Wisconsin

15
Target class size
K–3
Grade levels
3
Subjects improved

Key Findings

  • K–3 students in lower-income districts performed better in math, reading, and language arts than comparison schools
  • African-American students gained more than white students, narrowing achievement gaps
  • Teachers reported more individualized instruction, fewer discipline problems, and greater enthusiasm

Summary

Wisconsin’s Student Achievement Guarantee in Education program reduced class sizes to 15 students in K–3 at high-poverty schools. Results showed significant achievement gains across all three core subjects, with particular benefits for African-American students. Teacher reports confirmed improved classroom dynamics beyond test scores alone.

Study #3

California K–3 Class Size Reduction

914K
Enrollment observations
28.5 → 19.5
Average class reduction
0.11
Direct math effect (SD)

Key Findings

  • Direct positive test-score effect plus sizable indirect effects via student sorting
  • Benefit–cost ratio improves substantially when sorting effects are included
  • Effects persisted over time

Summary

Gilraine, Macartney & McMillan (2020) evaluated California’s massive K–3 class-size reduction using 914,514 enrollment observations. Classes dropped from ~28.5 to ~19.5 students. Beyond direct math gains of ~0.11 SD, the study found that school composition changes amplified the benefits, making the policy more cost-effective than the direct effects alone would suggest.

Study #4

Japan — Class Size and Peer Effects

145K
Student-year observations
2–6
Grade levels
0.087
Math gain per 10-student reduction (SD)

Key Findings

  • A 10-student class-size reduction corresponds to ~0.087 SD gain in math
  • Math effect is statistically significant (−0.00870 SD per +1 student, SE 0.00309)
  • Japanese language effects were not statistically significant (−0.00278 SD per +1 student)
  • Heterogeneity by peer composition is an important mechanism — classmate characteristics interact with class size
  • Typical class size ~31; cap at ~40 (35 for grade 2 after 2012)

Summary

Tanaka & Wang (2025) used student-teacher pair fixed effects and 2SLS with predicted class size as an instrument across 145,264 student-year observations in Japanese elementary schools (grades 2–6). The study found a statistically significant negative effect of larger classes on math scores, with a 10-student reduction yielding ~0.087 SD gains. Importantly, the study demonstrates that peer composition interacts with class-size effects — how classmates are grouped matters alongside how many there are.

Study #5

Germany — Class Size and Grade Repetition

258K
Students in full sample
1–4
Grade levels
25
Maximum class-size rule

Key Findings

  • Larger grade-1 classes significantly predict higher grade repetition during grades 1–4
  • Each additional student in grade 1 increases repetition probability by +0.4 percentage points (SE 0.001)
  • Per 10-student reduction: ~4 pp lower repetition probability
  • Effects on secondary school tracking recommendation were small and not significant
  • Uses Germany’s cap-at-25 rule — a relatively small-class environment, yet effects still emerge

Summary

Argaw & Puhani (2017) used administrative panel data from Hesse, Germany, covering 258,098 students. Using the cap-at-25 maximum class-size rule as an instrumental variable with school fixed effects, they found that larger first-grade classes significantly increase grade repetition through elementary school. Notably, this study shows that class-size effects on schooling progression emerge even in a system with already relatively small classes.

Study #6

Sweden — Long-Run Effects on Wages & Cognition

0.23
Cognitive gain at age 13 (SD, per 7 students)
4–6
Grade levels
~18%
Internal rate of return

Key Findings

  • Cognitive ability at age 13: −0.033 SD per additional student (SE 0.014) — statistically significant
  • Calibrated to a 7-student STAR-scale reduction: +0.23 SD cognitive gains
  • Adult wages: ~4.4% higher for a 7-student class reduction (economically meaningful though not significant at 5%)
  • Effects persist from childhood into adulthood — one of the strongest long-run follow-ups in the literature
  • Cost-benefit analysis: present value of benefits outweighs costs; internal rate of return ~18%

Summary

Fredriksson, Öckert & Oosterbeek (2013) used Sweden’s maximum class-size rule as an instrumental variable and followed students from primary school into their 40s. The study found that smaller classes in grades 4–6 significantly boost cognitive ability at age 13, with effects persisting into adult wages. Their cost-benefit analysis yielded an internal rate of return of ~18%, making this one of the most compelling long-run cases for class-size investment in the international literature.

Socioemotional Research

Beyond academics: emotional & social outcomes

Smaller classes can improve socioemotional and behavioral outcomes in early grades, but effects vary by context, baseline class size, and outcome measured. The biggest payoffs appear in early grades and for disadvantaged students.

K
13–17
Emotional regulation & peer skills
Grades 1–3
15–18
Target lowest for high-need cohorts
Grades 4–5/6
18–23
Keep lower for behavioral complexity

What the evidence shows

  • Modest but meaningful gains in social competence, emotional maturity, and communication skills in early grades
  • Larger classes increase student physical and emotional distress, especially for low-income children
  • Early small-class assignment improves later student initiative and engagement
  • Children in larger classes are more likely to be off-task and distracted

Important caveats

  • The research base is thinner than for academic achievement
  • Effects can be nonlinear — bigger gains when reducing already-small classes below certain thresholds
  • Bullying dynamics are complex; smaller classes alone may not reduce bullying without accompanying climate supports
  • Socioemotional gains are strongest when reductions are targeted to high-need settings

Socioemotional impact areas

OutcomeImpact of Smaller Classes
Social Competence+0.07 SD per 10-student reduction (K)
Emotional Maturity+0.12 SD per 10-student reduction (K)
Communication Skills+0.08 SD per 10-student reduction (K)
Student Initiative+0.18 SD (Grade 4, after K–3 treatment)
Student DistressReduced (especially low-income)
Bullying VictimizationReduced in high-class-size settings
Study #7

Quebec Kindergarten — Nonlinear Class Size Effects

108K
Student observations
0.12
Emotional maturity effect (SD)
20
Province-wide class cap

Key Findings

  • Larger classes causally reduce teacher-rated social competence, emotional maturity, and communication skills
  • Effects are nonlinear — marginal benefits of reducing size are larger in the smaller-class region
  • Effects strongest for disadvantaged areas
  • A 10-student reduction corresponds to +0.07 SD (social competence), +0.12 SD (emotional maturity), +0.08 SD (communication)

Summary

Connolly & Haeck (2021) used Quebec’s province-wide cap-at-20 rule as a natural experiment, applying fuzzy regression discontinuity / IV methods across 108,151 kindergarteners. Outcomes were standardized (mean 0, SD 1). The study found that reducing class size meaningfully improves teacher-rated social competence, emotional maturity, and communication skills — with effects concentrated in disadvantaged areas and strongest at smaller class sizes.

Study #8

Denmark K–2 — Class Size and Student Distress

K–2
Grade levels studied
2025
Publication year

Key Findings

  • Larger classes increase students’ self-reported physical and emotional distress
  • Effects are concentrated among low-income students
  • Demonstrates that class size impacts go beyond academic achievement to affect student well-being

Summary

Beuchert & Nandrup (2025) used Danish administrative and school data to establish a causal link between class size and student well-being. The study found that larger classes in grades K–2 increase self-reported physical and emotional distress, with effects appearing strongest among children from low-income families — highlighting that class size policy has consequences for student welfare beyond test scores.

Study #9

West Bank Schools — Class Size, Bullying & Violence

~6,000
Students surveyed
12.9pp
Higher bullying risk per +10 students
5–9
Grade levels

Key Findings

  • Larger classes increase probability of being bullied and increase violent behavior
  • A 10-student increase corresponds to ~12.9 percentage-point higher bullying-victim probability
  • Mental-health difficulties (SDQ) also rise with class size, suggesting psychological mechanism pathways
  • Reducing very large classes may yield particularly meaningful socioemotional benefits

Summary

Hallaq (2020) used maximum class-size rules in West Bank schools (governmental max 40; UNRWA max 45/50) as a regression discontinuity instrument across ~6,000 students in grades 5–9. The study found that class size increases meaningfully worsen peer safety and behavior outcomes, with mechanism evidence linking larger classes to mental-health difficulties. The results imply that reducing very large classes can yield meaningful socioemotional benefits.

Study #10

Project STAR Follow-Up — Non-Cognitive Returns

0.18
Initiative effect at Grade 4 (SD)
2,212
Students (Grade 4 sample)
K–3 → 4
Treatment → Outcome grades

Key Findings

  • Early small-class assignment (K–3) improves teacher-rated student initiative at Grade 4 (~0.13–0.18 SD)
  • Evidence for effort and nonparticipatory behavior is less robust once fixed effects are added
  • No persistent STAR effects on engagement by Grade 8 in preferred specification
  • Implied internal rate of return (from broader NELS:88 8th-grade analysis): 4.6% overall, 7.9% in urban schools

Summary

Dee & West (2011) reanalyzed Project STAR follow-up data, focusing on non-cognitive outcomes. Using observational controls and fixed effects across 2,212 students at Grade 4, they found that K–3 small-class assignment significantly improves teacher-rated initiative. While some socioemotional benefits exist, persistence and breadth across domains is not guaranteed — supporting a cautious but positive synthesis for early-grade interventions.

Study #11

UK Reception/KS1 — Attentiveness & Peer Relations

235
Children observed
19 vs 33
Small vs large class average
5,000+
In behavior rating sample

Key Findings

  • Children in larger classes are more likely to be off-task and distracted (confirmed by systematic observation)
  • Teacher-rated peer relations showed mixed results — some counterintuitive patterns in smallest classes
  • Highlights that different socioemotional measures can move in different directions depending on method and setting

Summary

Blatchford, Edmonds & Martin (2003) conducted a large longitudinal study of English reception and Key Stage 1 classes, combining systematic classroom observations of 235 children across 39 classes with teacher-rated behavior scales for 5,000+ children. While observations clearly showed more off-task behavior in larger classes, teacher ratings of peer relations yielded mixed patterns — an important reminder that “social outcomes” can move differently depending on how they are measured.

Study #12

Austria & Netherlands — Class Size and Bullying Dynamics

2,911
Students across both countries
136
Classrooms studied

Key Findings

  • Bullying prevalence appeared higher in smaller classes in these samples — a counterintuitive finding
  • Partly attributable to measurement effects: peer-nomination measures are mechanically related to network size
  • Popularity and status dynamics also play a role in smaller peer networks
  • Does not refute causal evidence that reducing very large classes can reduce bullying, but underscores that bullying is a peer-network phenomenon

Summary

Garandeau et al. (2019) conducted an observational multilevel study across 77 Austrian and 59 Dutch classrooms (2,911 students, mean ages ~11–12). The study found that bullying can appear higher in smaller classes, partly due to how peer-nomination measures work and social-status dynamics. This important caveat does not negate causal evidence from other settings, but highlights that bullying prevention requires more than class size reduction alone — social norms and bystander interventions matter too.

At a Glance

All studies compared

StudyYearCountryMethodGradesKey Effect
Project STAR
Word et al.
1990US (TN)RCTK–3Reading 0.21–0.34; Math 0.17–0.33 SD
STAR Follow-Up
Krueger & Whitmore
2001US (TN)ExperimentalK–3 → HS~0.1 SD overall; ~0.2 SD Black; 56% gap reduction
SAGE
Wisconsin
1990sUS (WI)State programK–3Significant gains in math, reading, language arts
California CSR
Gilraine et al.
2020US (CA)Policy eval.K–3Direct math: ~0.11 SD
Japan
Tanaka & Wang
2025JapanFEIV / 2SLS2–6Math: ~0.087 SD per 10-student reduction
Germany (Hesse)
Argaw & Puhani
2017GermanyQuasi-exp. (IV)1–4Grade repetition: +0.4 pp per student
Sweden Long-Run
Fredriksson et al.
2013SwedenQuasi-exp. (IV)4–6Cognition: +0.23 SD (7-student cut); IRR ~18%
Socioemotional & Behavioral
Quebec K
Connolly & Haeck
2021CanadaQuasi-exp. (RD/IV)KEmotional maturity: +0.12 SD / 10 students
Denmark K–2
Beuchert & Nandrup
2025DenmarkCausalK–2Increased distress in larger classes (low-income)
West Bank
Hallaq
2020West BankQuasi-exp. (RD)5–9Bullying: +12.9 pp / 10 students
STAR Non-Cognitive
Dee & West
2011US (TN)RCT reanalysisK–3 → 4Initiative: +0.18 SD / 10 students
UK Reception/KS1
Blatchford et al.
2003UKLongitudinalReceptionMore off-task behavior in larger classes
Austria/Netherlands
Garandeau et al.
2019AT / NLObservationalPre-adolescentBullying higher in smaller classes (measurement effects)
Why Bigger?

Why schools combine classes or increase class sizes

Class combining and size increases are usually driven by resource constraints and enrollment dynamics — not pedagogy. Understanding these drivers is essential for effective advocacy.

1

Budget shortfalls & funding gaps

When revenues fall or costs rise, districts reduce staffing or avoid adding sections. Loss of funding or budget cuts cited by 52% of schools that lost teaching positions.

Mitigation: Multi-year financial forecasting, enrollment-based staffing guardrails, targeted class-size investments in early grades and high-need schools.
2

Teacher & staff vacancies

Unfilled roles force schools to cover classrooms with fewer adults. 29% of schools reported class sizes increased as a result of vacancies.

Mitigation: Improve compensation and working conditions, expand pipelines (residency/grow-your-own programs), retention strategies and workload reduction.
3

Declining enrollment & demographic shifts

When enrollment drops, per-pupil funding formulas lead to fewer sections. Decreased enrollment cited by 55% of schools that lost positions.

Mitigation: Strategic consolidation with equity safeguards, boundary redesign, school portfolio planning, and community-engaged closure/merger processes.
4

Unanticipated enrollment growth

When students arrive above projections, schools may temporarily exceed targets, combine sections, or delay adding a new classroom/teacher.

Mitigation: Better forecasting, flexible staffing reserves, capital planning aligned to demographic projections, and transparent parent communication.
5

Facility & space constraints

Even with funding, schools may lack physical classrooms. 31% of public schools have portable buildings in use; 21% reported major repair work.

Mitigation: Capital investment and modernization, site acquisition, co-location/space-sharing strategies, and repurposing non-instructional rooms.
6

Substitute shortages & high absenteeism

When teachers are absent and substitutes are unavailable, schools combine classes or distribute students. More than 75% of schools reported greater difficulty getting substitutes.

Mitigation: Increase substitute pay, centralized substitute pools, deploy trained paraprofessionals, and improve working conditions for substitutes.
7

Specialized role shortages (SPED, ESL)

Special education, bilingual/ESL, and other specialized vacancies trigger reallocations that inflate general classroom sizes. 74% of schools reported difficulty filling special education positions.

Mitigation: Credential pipeline programs, tuition support, targeted hiring incentives, caseload management, and regional service-sharing models.
8

Legal caps, waivers & compliance reshuffling

Ironically, class-size laws can increase combination classes: schools may combine in some grades to keep capped grades compliant, or apply for exemptions permitting larger classes.

Mitigation: Align staffing and capital planning to statutory requirements, build contingency capacity, and apply for waivers with transparent criteria.
9

Program preservation & scheduling trade-offs

Maintaining electives, specialty classes, intervention blocks, or required services can reduce available general-ed sections, raising average class sizes.

Mitigation: Protect high-impact services using targeted staffing, schedule redesign, and staffing models that explicitly budget for electives without inflating homerooms.
10

School mergers, closures & reconfigurations

When systems face simultaneous underutilization and overcrowding, merging schools or reconfiguring grade bands changes class sizes across the board.

Mitigation: Equity-centered portfolio planning, transparent criteria, transition supports, transportation planning, and post-merger monitoring.
Additional Resources

Data, fact sheets & policy reviews